Reading the New World Order: Facts Many Ignore
Abdallah Gasmi Tunisia
The American war on Iran has confirmed the end of the current world order and revealed the features of a new, multipolar world order that will witness the collapse of one empire and the rise of others. It is now certain that Fukuyama's "end of history" theory has ended, and we are witnessing the beginning of a new chapter in history, some of whose pages may be painful. However, the most prominent player in this new history will not be China, as most analysts and scholars believe. Rather, anyone who follows events with a discerning eye can easily see that China desires to maintain the current world order because it has been the biggest beneficiary of it for the past thirty years. Furthermore, China's meteoric rise is closely linked to the American economy, and the decline or fall of the American role will be a cause for China's decline. The economic relationship between China and America is one of integration: America is the financier and consumer, and China is the manufacturer. Most American companies are based in China, and most American imports come from China. The highest volume of trade in the world is between America and China. In addition, China is the world's largest holder of US dollar reserves and the largest holder of US Treasury bonds. It is not in China's interest for the dollar to depreciate, as this would cost it significant losses from its global currency reserves. Nor is it in China's interest for US Treasury bonds to depreciate, as this would also result in substantial losses. Therefore, China is not currently considering overthrowing the existing world order. Instead, it is working on a somewhat long-term plan by finding alternatives to the US and creating new markets in Africa, Europe, and the US through the Belt and Road Initiative. Of course, in this endeavor, China is pursuing a soft power strategy, aiming to avoid losing the United States as its largest customer. Conversely, the United States is pursuing a policy of containment against China through economic sanctions and tariffs, despite recognizing that these tariffs are counterproductive, as most goods imported from China originate from American factories located in China. Regarding Taiwan, the hesitant US stance reflects this policy. While the US supports the "One China" principle, it threatens military intervention should China invade Taiwan. This is aimed at maintaining the containment policy and preventing China from dominating semiconductor technology. China is accelerating its economic diversification project, and its arms race is perhaps nothing more than a preemptive measure for the future. This will be confirmed by US President Trump's state visit to China, where he will receive a grand welcome. Major economic agreements are expected to be signed between the US and China, bringing them closer and revealing the true intentions of both countries. In short, a confrontation between China and the US is currently postponed, and it is in their interest to divide the global pie. China will allow the US to expand its influence in Latin America, while China will expand its influence in Europe to help the US block the path of the true superpower. So the question is, if the US and China are striving to avoid confrontation and maintain the global order, who will seek to undermine it? There is no doubt that the greatest threat to the global order is Russia, even though its economic weight is not comparable to China or America. Russia is armed with a formidable military force and a clear strategic vision. It understands that American hegemony stems from the strength of the dollar, and therefore it has repeatedly sought to undermine the dollar within the BRICS organization. It also exploited its war on Ukraine to the fullest extent, using it to prolong the war and militarily exhaust the West. Herein lies the paradox: Russia's arms industry is state-owned and produces in enormous quantities, while in America, this task is undertaken by the private sector in an agreement with the state based on a peculiar principle: cost plus profit. This means that arms-producing companies produce weapons at a fluctuating price. We mean that these companies sell weapons to the state at a price distributed as follows: the cost of materials, the cost of manufacturing, and a profit margin estimated between 10 and 20 percent. Of course, these companies manipulate arms prices due to the high cost of raw materials and because this industry is very precise and mostly manual, and of course, due to their desire to achieve the highest profit margin. This makes American arms production very expensive, while Russia controls the resources and energy, and weapons are manufactured in a Ministry of Defense factory. Therefore, every shell and every missile launched in Russia Ukraine is an economic drain on Western countries, especially Europe, which has lost cheap Russian energy and replaced it with American energy, which costs almost 10 times more than Russian energy. Furthermore, Europe is obligated to support Ukraine militarily, thus depleting its resources in In this senseless war, Putin will not seek a swift resolution but will instead prolong it by focusing on strikes against Odessa, which Europe fears will fall into his hands. He will also exploit the unwarranted fear displayed by some countries like Lithuania and Poland, leading them to increase their military spending, which will burden their citizens, especially after the American war on Iran. Putin seeks to prolong this war by providing Iran with intelligence and information to halt energy exports, particularly Qatari gas, to Europe. The longer the American war on Iran continues, the closer Putin's objective will become. His goal is clear: to instigate a political upheaval in Europe, toppling the current ruling political elites and elevating nationalist European elites who will seek closer ties with Russia, viewing it as a European power that provides cheap energy. America will not succeed in countering Putin's plan because the European transformation will be political and internal, leading to a decline in American influence and an increase in Russian influence in Europe. This Russian influence will also grow in the Gulf region, where Arab states have realized that America is incapable of protecting them. This will lead to a shift in political and military alliances, a shift that Russia will undoubtedly welcome. Thus, Russia will become the new partner for the region and the anticipated alternative to the American presence. Although American influence in the Gulf region will not completely disappear, the Gulf states have come to realize that America is not a trustworthy ally, and due to the danger posed by the Zionist entity, which is supported by the US, to the countries of the region. Consequently, Russia will have a significant role in shaping global policies, as it will become the controller of the energy market. This will bring China and India under its control, and both will seek to rid themselves of American dependence, which will be unable to provide them with alternative energy sources. Of course, India and China will not be subservient to Russia, but will deal with it on the basis of partnership and mutual interests. In return, America will lose its hegemony over Europe, the Gulf, China, and India, and will strive to dominate its backyard, namely Latin America. The final alliance in the new multipolar system with multiple spheres of influence will include Japan and South Korea. Those following the American war on Iran are not discussing the biggest loser in this war, which is Japan. Japan imports 70 percent of its oil needs from the Gulf, and with the continuation of the war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the destruction of the Gulf, this will significantly impact its energy security. With its oil facilities, Japan is threatened in industry and in every other sector. Even if the war ends, Japan will not put all its eggs in one basket again. It will seek to diversify its energy sources, and its only option is Russia. It will strive for rapprochement with Russia and strike deals with it at the expense of America. South Korea will follow suit. Despite this, both countries will maintain military cooperation with America, but not to the same extent as before. Of course, some emerging countries, such as Brazil, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Turkey, will exploit this situation, either to try to break free from economic and military dependence or to create spheres of economic influence. Thus, we will witness in the new world order multiple poles with overlapping and conflicting interests, harboring contradictions and differing political visions that may lead to military confrontations, potentially culminating in a world war. Therefore, we see that the main player in the new world order is Russia, not China. China will not be the initiator but will pursue an opportunistic, self-serving policy that will force it to catch up with the Russian bear to become a pole, not a follower