Jaipur: Rajasthan Monsoon Arrival and Rainfall Outlook 2026

Jaipur: Dark clouds and strong winds have provided temporary relief from the intense heat in Rajasthan, but have also raised several questions about the monsoon's arrival and rainfall patterns. Farmers are uncertain if it is time for sowing, and common people are confused whether the recent rain is the first of the monsoon. The biggest concern remains the weakening of the monsoon due to the El Nino effect, which may impact water supply.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon officially reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than usual. Typically, the monsoon takes about 25 to 30 days to travel from Kerala to Rajasthan. If conditions remain favorable, the monsoon is expected to cover Rajasthan fully by the last week of June or the first week of July and cover the entire country by mid-July. Recent pre-monsoon activities caused by western disturbances have brought storms, rain, and hail in Jaipur, Jodhpur, Bikaner, Ajmer, and Bharatpur divisions, resulting in some accidents and fatalities. The weather department has issued orange and yellow alerts for 27 districts.

Reports from weather agencies and CRISIL suggest that the El Nino phenomenon might weaken the monsoon, causing below-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and other major agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Despite the lower rainfall forecast, Rajasthan's farmers are not expected to face sowing difficulties due to adequate water storage in western and northern reservoirs. However, there might be a slight decline in crop yield later in the season due to moisture deficiency, increased pest attacks, and possible fertilizer shortages. The weather department forecasts light to moderate rain and storms in several divisions until June 7, with dry conditions expected statewide from June 8 to 10.