Demographic Context of Assam's Muslim Population

​The statement that the Muslim population, often referring specifically to the Miya Muslim community, will reach 38% in Assam is a widely reported projection, primarily cited by the state's Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma. This figure is based on observed growth trends and is anticipated to be revealed in the state's upcoming census data.
​Key Demographic Data and Projections:
​2011 Census Baseline: According to the last official Census of India conducted in 2011, the total Muslim population in Assam constituted 34.22% of the state’s total population.
​Decadal Growth: The Muslim population in Assam recorded a growth rate of 29.59% between 2001 and 2011, which was significantly higher than the growth rate of the Hindu population (10.89%) during the same period.
​Projections: The projection of 38% is an extrapolation of this trend, suggesting a continuing shift in the state's religious demography. Some other analyses and claims have projected the Muslim population share to reach an estimated 42.9% by 2050 or even near parity (50:50 ratio with the Hindu population) by 2041, if the current growth rates continue unabated.
​The demographic changes in Assam are a subject of significant political and social discussion, often linked to concerns over indigenous rights and landholding patterns. The Miya community, comprising Bengali-origin Muslims, is highly concentrated in several districts of the Brahmaputra Valley, which further highlights the uneven nature of this demographic shift across the state.