UNCTAD urges smarter copper trade as bottlenecks threaten global transition

6 May 2025

The global copper industry is entering a pivotal phase — one not only requiring more production, but also smarter, more inclusive and technologically driven growth strategies.

Global demand set to rise 40% by 2040, but supply remains under strain
China dominates the processing of many critical minerals
Developing countries risk missing out on value-added opportunities if they remain limited to raw material exports
Smarter trade policies, investment, and recycling are needed to close the gap
A looming copper shortfall could stall the world’s shift to clean energy and digital infrastructure, warns UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest Global Trade Update published on 6 May. The report calls copper the “new strategic raw material” “in the new green and digital economy” and a test case for how global trade systems handle resource pressures under strain.

Copper is essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial-intelligence infrastructure, data centres and smart grids. Yet supply isn’t keeping up. Global demand is set to rise over 40% by 2040, but low ore grades, geopolitical risks and long development timelines – up to 25 years for new mines – pose structural challenges. Meeting projected needs would require 80 new mines and $250 billion in investment by 2030.